From OSCON 2014: “Anticipating the Future: An Introduction to Value Chain Mapping.” Apparently we are living through a time of disruptive innovation, with the creation of new value and the destruction of old norms. Cloud computing, Big Data, the rise of open source and the internet of things are all examples of this — or so we are told. But whilst we all have inertia to change, disruption implies that the change is unexpected, even unpredictable. However, if you have 20 years to plan for something, can you really call it surprising, random or unexpected?
Alas, it turns out that companies are being disrupted by broadly predictable changes. But how can this be? The problem is poor situational awareness to the point of blindness. In this keynote, I will present the general principles of industry change and describe what can and cannot be predicted. I will then examine how companies can better understand the environment around them and by anticipating the nature of change then manipulate the market in their favor through open techniques.
About Simon Wardley (Leading Edge Forum [CSC]):
Simon Wardley, based in the UK, is a Researcher for CSC’s Leading Edge Forum, a global research and advisory programme that explores new thinking and develops next practice roadmaps that address the major challenges at the intersection of business, IT and management. Simon’s focus is on the intersection of IT strategy and new technologies, and his current research project is entitled Competing in an Open World. Simon has also recently covered topics including Learning from Web 2.0 and A Lifecycle Approach to Cloud Computing.
Simon has spent the last 15 years defining future IT strategies for companies in the FMCG, Retail and IT industries. From Canon’s early leadership in the cloud computing space in 2005, to Ubuntu’s recent dominance as the No 1 Cloud operating system. He is a passionate advocate and researcher in the fields of open source, commoditization, innovation, organizational structure and cybernetics.
As a geneticist with a love of mathematics and a fascination in economics, Simon has always found himself dealing with complex systems, whether it’s in behavioural patterns, environmental risks of chemical pollution, developing novel computer systems or managing companies. He is a passionate advocate and researcher in the fields of open source, commoditization, innovation, organizational structure and cybernetics.
Simon is a regular presenter at conferences worldwide, and was voted as one of the UK’s top 50 most influential people in IT in ComputerWeekly’s 2011 poll.
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